Monday, October 20, 2008

The Evaporating Obama Landslide

Maybe I am just being pessimistic, but the GOP consultant Ken Silverstein quotes echoes some of my concerns (granted, from his perspective they are hopes). Two in particular:
Obama has a lot more enthusiasm, but a reluctant vote for McCain counts the same as an enthusiastic vote for Obama.
There’s been a lot of hype about [the youth vote], but it’s not going to materialize on Election Day.
It doesn't seem likely that either of these factors will come into play to an extent that McCain actually wins (youth turnout and, well, desperation rather than "enthusiasm," but it was a similar argument, were both supposed to be a factor in Kerry's 2004 victory, but that was an argument made against popular polling and the prediction markets whereas now all the indicators are in Obama's favor). But I think it does suggest that a landslide coupled with massive gains in the House and a filibuster-proof Senate are not in the cards.

1 comment:

DU said...

Now now. If anything, the recent change in polling direction proves that anything can still happen. A mild decline followed by a mild upswing and we are back into 538 electoral votes territory, plus ultra-mega-majorities in two houses of Congress plus the creation of a third house of Democrats only.

You've also neglected the black vote. Also also, I understand Obama has received the ringing endorsement of swamp gas.